by Rhodri C. Williams
Here is a video, published today, of protesters with helmets, large metal shields and clubs creeping forward under sustained gunfire in Kiev, a European capital. It is not hard to imagine how that works out, but hit play if you need visual confirmation.
Here is a press statement from the EU Council from almost precisely one year ago welcoming the same country’s European choice and reaffirming the “joint engagement in the political association and economic integration of Ukraine with the European Union on the basis of respect for common values and their effective promotion.”
Something clearly went terribly wrong.
Here is a report on the meeting on the sidelines of the Sochi Olympics between embattled Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich and his friend in need Vladimir Putin, at which we now presume the former was instructed by the latter to “wipe [the protesters] out in the shit house.” Here is an outraged reaction by Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, who invokes a quasi-historical materialist argument in favor of the the inevitability of European integration:
Today, President Yanukovych has blood on his hands. And I am afraid that the path he has now taken will lead to even more suffering and violence. He was the only one who could have prevented the killing – by extending a hand of genuine cooperation to the democratic opposition.
Instead they were shown a fist. People have been shot dead with live ammunition. Peaceful demonstrators. But police officers and others have also been harmed in the violence that broke out. I am afraid that Ukraine is now heading for dark times. The crisis in the country will become deeper and longer. I am deeply concerned.
But the outcome of the violence will be precarious and short-lived. It will die away like a storm on the steppes. What has happened, and is happening, in Ukraine also demonstrates the power of the European dream. A Europe of peace and freedom and cooperation.
And sooner or later, it will triumph in Ukraine too.
Here is a reasonable counter-analysis, asserting that Putin will win this struggle because his interest in its outcome is vital and all-consuming, in comparison to the diffuse and ambiguous interest of the various EU decision-makers. This is the rump Soviet Union’s second Soviet missile crisis, once again staged during an Olympics Games, and vital political interests – if not real national interests – are at stake.
And here is an editorial, pointing out that the goal of EU integration has almost slipped off the radar in what has become a pure revolt against President Yanukovich and the corruption he represents. Which ends by pointing out how the resulting deadlock affects us all:
At stake for the United States is its already prickly relationship with Russia. That has implications for arms control and for American diplomacy on Syria and Iran. Co-operation between America and Russia has slipped badly, but what remains is still a requirement for an orderly world. Thus it is that Ukraine has gone from being a story of trouble in a distant place to being an issue which could profoundly affect all our futures.
Were the rumors of the Cold War’s demise dangerously exaggerated?